currency and banking Block

CICC interprets the meeting of the Politburo in December: the fiscal policy next year is expected to be significantly higher than this year. CICC issued a document saying that the tone of the Politburo in September will be continued, and this Politburo meeting will further inject confidence into the market, and there will be many new formulations in policy. From the perspective of policy objectives, the demand for growth is more clear, and the expression of "property market and stock market" is also very clear. From the policy direction, expanding domestic demand ranks first, and the tendency to boost consumption and improve people's livelihood is further highlighted. From the policy tone, monetary and fiscal policies are more active, and "extraordinary countercyclical adjustment" is put forward for the first time. In terms of specific policy prospects, we believe that the following aspects are worthy of attention: the intensity of fiscal policy next year is expected to be significantly higher than this year; The loose space of monetary policy may be opened through comprehensive policies, and the structural monetary policy may be significantly overweight; Expand domestic demand in an all-round way, and incremental measures may focus more on consumption; Further promote reform and opening up. Generally speaking, the policy mix is in line with what we judge as "tight credit, loose money and wide finance" in the second half of the financial cycle.CITIC Securities: In November, the PPI turned positive more than expected, and the core CPI continued to improve. According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the price data in November 2024 showed that the boosting effect on the economy after the policy shift in late September initially appeared at the "price end", mainly in two aspects: "PPI turned positive" and "continuous improvement of core CPI". In terms of PPI, this month's PPI turned positive more than expected, and the main contributions came from "the effect of trade-in for new products is gradually appearing at the price end of related industries" and "the acceleration of physical workload of infrastructure has boosted the prices of raw materials industries in the upper and middle reaches". It is embodied in the remarkable improvement of PPI in computer machine manufacturing, communication terminal equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, durable consumer goods (means of subsistence), non-metallic mineral products industry and other industries. In terms of CPI, although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI further declined to 0.2%, which was significantly lower than the market expectation, it was largely affected by the over-seasonal decline in food prices. The core CPI, which the market paid more attention to, continued to improve slightly on the margin, with the year-on-year reading rising from 0.1% at the bottom of September to 0.2% in October and 0.3% in November. In terms of splitting, the CPI decline of the three major durable consumer goods and services has narrowed compared with the same period of last year. On the whole, the combination of "CPI 0.2%+PPI -2.5%" reveals that China is still facing significant "low inflation" pressure, and it is still necessary to continue to strengthen the price level with a package of incremental policies. Looking back, if the boosting effect of the "two new" policies on the demand of downstream industrial products and the driving effect of the accelerated issuance of special bonds on the physical workload of infrastructure can be released continuously, it will provide some support for the improvement of PPI; However, if you want to see the PPI continue to turn positive significantly, you may have to wait for the policy to further push the physical workload and real estate start-up data, as well as the more stringent supply-side optimization policies in some areas with more production capacity.Samsung is betting that XR's first lightweight AR glasses will ship 50,000 units next year. Samsung is actively promoting the Extended Reality (XR) project called Infinite, which is scheduled to be publicly displayed at the Galaxy Unpacked conference in January next year, and will be officially released in the third quarter of 2025. Samsung Electronics has made a production plan for XR equipment, and it is expected to ship more than 20,000 to 30,000 units in the third and fourth quarters of next year respectively.

The director of the South Korean Police Department and the director of the Seoul Police Department were forbidden to leave the country. On December 10th, local time, the special investigation team of the National Investigation Headquarters under the South Korean Police Department took measures to prohibit the director of the South Korean Police Department Zhao Zhihao and the director of the Seoul Police Department Jin Fengzhi from leaving the country.South Korea's Ministry of Finance said in a joint statement that South Korea will actively respond and reverse market sentiment.Millennium Capital has increased its office space in Hong Kong. According to Sing Tao Daily, Millennium Capital Management Asia leased another floor of the second phase of Hong Kong Central International Financial Center. Millennium will lease 46 floors of about 23,909 square feet of space until September 2027. The rent for new office space is estimated at around HK$ 120 per square foot. The company has rented the 43rd floor of the same building.

The US military suspended the flight of some Osprey transport planes and informed the Japanese government. On the 9th, the US military said that it had suspended the flight of some Osprey transport planes and informed the Japanese government of the relevant situation. According to the Associated Press, the suspension of the flight was related to the plane crash that almost happened at an air base in New Mexico on November 20th.Galaxy Securities: Domestic policies may continue to increase, and metal prices are expected to go up. china galaxy Securities said that on the demand side, the domestic package of economic incremental policies played a significant role. In November, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.30%, which was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the expansion pace was slightly accelerated. The domestic central economic work conference is just around the corner, and it is expected to put forward more positive incremental policy instructions for the economy next year, continue to raise the expectation of macro-recovery, and benefit the rise of copper prices. In addition, the new non-agricultural data in November in the United States reflected that the negative impact of hurricanes and strikes dissipated, but the number of new jobs in the first two months was revised up and the unemployment rate rose, which made the market worry about weak employment. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in December. It is expected that the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut in December will rise from 67% before the report was released to 85%, and now it has risen to 86%. However, China's central bank once again increased its holdings of gold by nearly 5 tons after half a year in November, indicating that the logic and willingness of global central banks to increase their holdings of gold are still there in the current geopolitical turmoil. The expected warming of interest rate cuts, the central bank's continued increase in gold holdings, and the recent short-term martial law in South Korea and the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine are expected to jointly support the price of gold.Debon Securities: Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the fields of liquor, beer and leisure snacks. Debon Securities Research Report pointed out that 1) Liquor: The dealer conference will set the tone for next year, giving priority to the opportunities of low-value leading layout. Recently, wine companies have intensively held dealer meetings to set the tone for next year's growth. At present, wine enterprises are generally rational and pragmatic, and reasonable speed reduction reduces the burden on channels. With a series of economic policies, the consumption of enterprises and residents is expected to pick up in 2025. The competitiveness of head enterprises has been further enhanced through continuous evolution, so it is suggested to grasp the investment opportunities with low expectations at present. 2) Beer: The overall performance of the third quarterly report is under pressure due to the weak recovery of demand and weather, but it is expected that the ton price of major beer enterprises will maintain a steady and rising trend throughout the year. With the introduction of a series of policies to stimulate consumption, terminal demand is expected to improve, and the recovery of ready-to-drink scenes such as catering is expected to promote the upgrading and continuation of beer structure. 3) Leisure snacks: The performance of leisure snack enterprises is further differentiated, and the performance of high-potential targets is optimistic in the peak season. In the third quarter, the performance of leisure and snack enterprises was divided, and the growth toughness of high-potential enterprises remained the same. The follow-up Spring Festival peak season is expected to bring the possibility of exceeding expectations. At present, the level of income profit rate of head enterprises is expected to remain stable.